Future Dreams – Chapter 2

It’s no secret Los Angeles, San Francisco, and other major cities in California have experienced housing crises in the past several years. If such an earthquake occurs, it would literally cripple the economy, the freeways, and bring to a halt much of the industry in Southern California. This means a shortage of produce, clean drinking water, and many other goods. Not to mention, by losing housing and office space, there may be no place for those displaced metropolitan area residents to relocate—possibly leading to the declaration of a national state of emergency, and requiring millions, or more likely billions, in federal government aid.

Even worse (if possible), millions will be unable to work, have access to food, clean water, plumbing, electricity, and other essentials. They will be impacted for many, many months afterwards, meaning leaving the area may be the best, or only, alternative for many people. And, due to the catastrophic damage, there’s a good chance moving back may not be high on former residents to-do lists after this Big One.

However, The Big One along the San Andreas isn’t the only potential quake that could affect life as we know it in the Western United States.

Like Jones, seismologist Chris Goldfinger also gives credence to the concept of The Big One, due to the intense pressure underneath the San Andreas. However, in a New Yorker interview from 2015, he also brings up his predictions that another nearby fault line, called the Cascadian Line will witness an equally, if not more destructive, earthquake. This could prove disastrous and would most likely claim nearly 13,000 lives in the process.

A Cascadian Fault Line earthquake would effect “some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people. When the next full-margin rupture happens, that region will suffer the worst natural disaster in the history of North America.” [xiii]

What are the Chances this will Occur?

The biggest hindrance to seismologists making predictions is if they are wrong, millions of people will be affected. Evacuation is costly, and can even be dangerous if the earthquake doesn’t happen in the precise location that they are predicting. However, some sort of idea as to what the future holds is necessary, if possible, in order to plan and properly prepare.

According to the United States Geological Survey, the probability that another Los Angeles earthquake of greater than 7.5M will occur in the next 30 years is 31%. In comparison, there’s a 60% chance that an earthquake measuring a magnitude greater than 6.7 will happen. By comparison, in San Francisco the chance of a 7.5M drops to 20%, but the overall probability of a 6.7M jumps to 71%. [xiv] And, according to the USGS, the probability of a 5M earthquake happening in the Los Angeles area by 2018 is close to 85%. [xv] All of these probabilities are part of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) [http://www.wgcep.org/UCERF3], which was developed by an array of scientists over several years and published in 2015.

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