Urged by these findings, the city of Los Angeles is undergoing some major building renovations in order to take appropriate action. While these changes most likely won’t be finished for another five years or so, the recognition that something is going to happen, in terms of an earthquake, is weighing heavily upon lawmaker’s shoulders.
According to a new state bill, structures in multiple unit apartments and offices in Los Angeles, as of 2018, will need to be strengthened by upwards of 50%! [xvi] This comes as a direct result of research which supports being “overdue” for experiencing another Big One-level earthquake in Southern California. Building code renovations help buildings avoid crushing people, and saves lives. But the displacement of people and resources could be catastrophic, if the buildings are no longer usable.
However, with these improved building codes, lawmakers are taking notice, and are preparing for the worst. You can read the amended pending legislation here [xvii]. Keep in mind this is important, because in a state like California, exerting energy and resources for this degree of change is not easy—especially when it comes to increasing the structural integrity by 50% in residential and office buildings. In other words, lawmakers would have no reason to implement this high level of change without some scientific basis for the inevitability of this type of disastrous event.
An Explanation for the Generally Held Belief by Seismologists that Earthquakes are not Capable of Being Predicted Accurately
Predicting any type of earthquake can fall outside of the realms of what is capable for most seismologists. With so many factors at play, it can be demoralizing to these people who spend so much of their lives trying to protect the general public from natural disaster. However, the real problem behind predictions is in the nature of the phenomena itself. Large amounts of pressure are needed in order to actually get the tectonic plates to shift. Pinpointing the exact time the plates will move from that pressure, is difficult at best to predict using currently accepted scientific modeling. [xviii]
However, based on recent forecasts, and renewed interest in protecting highly vulnerable and at-risk locales such as Californian cities, more research is being conducted. And consequently, more funding is necessary. Early warning systems exist in several other countries, but in California where the next big earth quake could wreak havoc on millions of lives, it is still in the initial development phase. [xix]
Despite not having a highly evolved warning system in place, Lucy Jones explains that sometimes there are visible signs which shouldn’t be dismissed. During the 1975 earthquake in Haicheng, residents were evacuated based on foreshocks. Similar foreshocks could give enough forewarning to help evacuate some of California, however they aren’t always reliable, which means that something more accurate is necessary.
Foreshocks can play an important role in predicting earthquakes, such as the 500 foreshocks in a major Japan earthquake which helped predict it, and allowed citizens to evacuate. Jones goes on to explain, “The prediction did not happen because the Chinese knew more than we do about foreshocks. They used the basic principle quantified more than a century ago: One earthquake makes another earthquake more likely and guessed that having a swarm of over 500 events made a big earthquake even more likely,” Jones said.” [xx] However, this predictive factor doesn’t always work. It was attempted years later in California and failed, making it very difficult to give precise predictions that are useful for the public.